The first problem for the aviation industry is the short lead-in time to Brexit, which may not provide enough time for an EU-UK bilateral aviation agreement. Like other airlines Ryanair plans its schedule 12 months in advance. The second is politics. The impact of leaving the European Union on aviation will be among the most visible to the British public and may be a tempting tool for EU leaders keen to pressure Britain to soften its position, he said. "If the Europeans want to be difficult with the British, and I think they do, I think 'Open Skies' is where they will first cause trouble," he said. "(German Chancellor Angela) Merkel cannot give Britain an easy exit from the EU." HARD BREXIT The worst case scenario, which O'Leary said "unlikely but a possibility" is a hard Brexit in which flights between Britain and the European Union simply cease on the day after Brexit. "It would be inconvenient for the Europeans, but the UK would get completely screwed," he said. That could require Ryanair to move its 13 UK bases, which employ google flights over 3,000 people and operate over 100 planes, to bases in continental Europe. "If we had 12 months' notice, we could re-house 100 aircraft into continental Europe - I mean we have 84 bases," he said. "But it would mean significant over-capacity (on intra-EU routes) ...and there would be downward pressure on pricing and on profits for a year or two." If a bilateral deal is agreed in time, Ryanair would still likely have to set up an entity with a British Air Operator's Certificate (AOC) in Britain to fly internal routes, which currently represent around 1 percent of its flights. Ryanair could only own 49 percent or less in the entity under EU rules, he said.
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